Deribit is set to settle about $3.16 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options at 08:00 UTC on Friday, marking the last major derivatives payment before Christmas. Liquidity is thinning into the holiday, and positions cluster around key price levels as traders wait for a clear catalyst. Bitcoin accounts for the bulk of the expiry notional.
Bitcoin notional around $2.69 billion is due to mature, with the spot price near $87,194 and up about 0.54% in the last 24 hours. The max pain for Bitcoin expiry sits near $88,000, while the spot price remains slightly below the strike. Ethereum is showing a different pattern, trading near $2,928 after a roughly 3.37% gain, with the max pain at $3,100 and the spot notably under that level. Ethereum open interest presents a balanced distribution, with 78,524 calls and 83,547 puts, totaling 162,071 contracts and a call-to-put ratio of 1.06.
A market analysis note ahead of the 08:00 UTC settlement suggests traders are avoiding aggressive directional bets and waiting for a clearer catalyst. An $85,000 put open interest remains, currently around 15,000 contracts with a notional around $1.25 billion. The presence of bearish pressure and FUD around ATM strikes persists, while a distant $100K+ strike call constellation carries about $1.75 billion in notional.
Longer-term flows look more constructive, with an upward bias extending through 2026. Even as near-term sentiment stays cautious, longer-term investors are positioning for a renewed bullish phase. The upcoming expiry and potential volatility around the holiday period could set the stage for a shift in tone, though traders anticipate gradual market stabilization as participants adjust, with the BOJ rate decision also a potential influence.
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