According to Michael Saylor, Bitcoin is on pace to hit a price of $1 million by late 2029. He argues that the primary driver is an accelerated pace of institutional adoption, with Wall Street embracing Bitcoin as a standalone asset class, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, and pro-Bitcoin policies rolled out in 2025.
The analysis notes that Bitcoin could rival gold as a store of value. The gold market cap is about $30 trillion, while Bitcoin’s market cap is roughly $1.75 trillion, implying a potential 15x to 20x uplift if the trajectory continues. Based on a current price of about $87,000, that scenario could put Bitcoin above $1 million.
Still, risks are acknowledged. Bitcoin is down about 8% this year while gold has gained more than 65%, challenging the idea that Bitcoin always tracks gold as digital gold. Some observers also argue that Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle may be behind us, suggesting the possibility of ongoing volatility and a 2026 drawdown.
On the upside, evidence cited includes that massive Bitcoin treasury holders have not yet started selling, and Strategy has been ramping up its Bitcoin purchases heading into 2026. While Bitcoin could ultimately reach $1 million by 2029, the most likely path is a longer timeline with volatility.
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