Bitcoin has entered the year-end Santa Rally zone, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. While the move does not imply an imminent surge, historical data show buying pressure tends to emerge during this phase. Adler tweeted that the regime score sits at +16.3, near the upper neutral range, suggesting bullish but not overheated conditions. Backtests indicate this zone is often associated with an optimistic yet lower-risk buying environment, with a 2025 forecast showing a 30-day average gain of +3.8%.
By contrast, the true bull zone above +30 has historically coincided with local tops and produced weak 7-day returns, around -3.3%. Adler also pointed to futures market dynamics: the liquidation dominance oscillator dropped to -11%, while the 30-day average remains about +10%, signaling heavy short-liquidation-driven price pressure. The long-liquidation rate sits at 44%, below the 50% threshold, reinforcing upside as selling pressure from shorts triggers automatic buy orders—an effect Adler called strategic fuel for the rally.
Currently, the market is not in a melt-up, but also not in a clear downtrend. Adler describes the stance as bullish neutrality. A drop below zero on the regime score, coupled with rising long-liquidations and a positive liquidation oscillator, could weaken upside momentum. Bitcoin is trading around $89,864, meandering between the weekly Fibonacci 0.618 and 0.786 levels.
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