Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson warned that the cryptocurrency ecosystem will inevitably become quantum-resistant, but only at a substantial cost. He argued that the debate is not about if changes are needed, but when they should be implemented, cautioning that premature steps could weaken blockchain performance. He noted that post-quantum cryptography tools exist, referencing NIST’s 2024 standards, but warned that deploying them before miners and validators are ready could be prohibitively expensive. “When you adopt it, you’re essentially reducing blockchain transaction capacity by cutting out a zero.”
Researchers broadly agree on the potential quantum threat, but timing remains uncertain. Hoskinson noted that the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative uses 2033 as a reference point to gauge the feasibility of utility-scale quantum computing. He explained that the industry faces a fork between hash-based cryptography favored by Ethereum and lattice-based cryptography favored by Cardano.
Hoskinson argued that lattice-based cryptography offers both digital signatures and encryption, can run on GPUs, and can leverage hundreds of billions of dollars of hardware built for AI infrastructures. He advocated a phased risk-mitigation approach, including securing Cardano’s ledger history by creating post-quantum signed checkpoints using the Mithril system and the Midnight sidechain. He added that this is not investment advice.
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