ADA trades near $0.371 on the 2-hour chart after a rough month that flipped from a big spike into a steady grind lower. The move topped near $0.4837 in early December, then rolled over hard and bled into a lower-high, lower-low structure, with a local low around $0.3483 that price has been trying to stabilize above. The last few sessions look more like a base than a bounce. ADA isn’t ripping higher, but it also isn’t making fresh lows, and it’s chopping in a tight band above $0.36.
On the upside, the ADA price needs to reclaim $0.38–$0.39 first, a zone that has capped rebounds during the slide and aligns with areas where sellers stepped in repeatedly. If bulls can push through that band and hold it, the next target becomes $0.40, followed by the wider resistance around $0.42–$0.44 where price traded before the bigger breakdown. In simple terms: $0.36 is the floor, $0.38–$0.39 is the ceiling, and $0.40 is the first real momentum test.
RSI readings for 6, 12, and 24 periods sit around 55.86, 55.52, and 50.62, signaling a move away from oversold conditions. Momentum has cooled off, then quietly rebuilt. MACD remains fragile but constructive tendencies are emerging, with the histogram around 0.0013 positive and DIF (-0.0007) and DEA (-0.0014) near zero. That usually reads as bear trend slowing down rather than new uptrend confirmed.
The positioning data leans bearish, even as price stabilizes. Net longs have been drifting lower and sit near 142.39M on the latest print, while net shorts have climbed and sit near 228.04M. The shape matters too. Shorts stepped up across the month, while longs bled out. That’s the backdrop of this consolidation: sellers still control the bigger structure, but the selling pressure is no longer accelerating.
Over the next 7 days, a bullish path would require a hold of $0.36 and a breakout through $0.38–$0.39, opening room toward $0.40 and possibly $0.44 if momentum persists. The bearish path would see a break below $0.36 toward $0.348, with thin support below the recent low raising downside risk. A neutral path would keep ADA trading in a tight range roughly between $0.36 and $0.39 for most of the week.
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