Onchain data also revealed a divergence between medium- and long-term holders. Tokens held for one to five years have seen significant movement, suggesting profit-taking or portfolio rotation, while coins held for more than five years remain largely untouched. VanEck interprets this as a signal that cyclical or shorter-term participants are offloading assets, whereas the oldest cohorts maintain conviction in Bitcoin’s future.
The VanEck team frames its analysis within the GEO (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, Onchain Activity) framework, designed to assess Bitcoin’s structural health beyond daily price fluctuations. Under this lens, improving liquidity and the accumulation by DATs provide a counterweight to softer on-chain metrics, including stagnating new addresses and declining transaction fees. New on-chain data reveals a divergence in Bitcoin holder activity across time horizons.
Tokens held for one to five years have shown notable movement, suggesting profit-taking or portfolio rotation, while coins held for more than five years remain largely untouched. VanEck interprets this as a signal that cyclical or shorter-term participants are offloading assets, whereas the oldest cohorts maintain conviction in Bitcoin’s future. Framed within the GEO framework—Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, Onchain Activity—the analysis notes improving liquidity and DATs accumulation offset softer on-chain metrics, such as stagnating new addresses and declining transaction fees.
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