Rich by Coin

The traditional “four-year cycle” theory, historically driven by Bitcoin’s halving events, is being fundamentally challenged. Seven crypto veterans debated its relevance in the current market, where spot ETFs and institutional capital have altered dynamics. The evolving cycle appears to shift from a supply-driven hard constraint to a narrative and macro liquidity-driven soft expectation, with halving’s impact increasingly intertwined with U.S. elections and global central bank liquidity. The smaller post-2024 halving price surge is seen as a natural result of diminishing marginal returns, not cycle failure, as institutional ETF inflows spread gains over time rather than producing a parabolic spike.

Bearish indicators include compressed miner margins and capital moving into AI, while others see a loose liquidity backdrop supporting a slow-bull or transitional phase. A true bear market would require a confirmed macroeconomic recession. Future drivers center on slow-building institutional adoption, with Bitcoin resembling digital gold on corporate balance sheets and stablecoins expanding the financial infrastructure, potentially yielding long-run oscillating growth similar to gold. Altcoin season is unlikely to return in full, with outperformance becoming highly selective and focused on blue-chip assets with real utility and revenue.

The market structure has shifted from an attention-driven retail dynamic to an ecosystem dominated by institutions and fundamentals. Investors have largely exited altcoins, keeping BTC and ETH as core bets, and adopting defensive strategies while some maintain a focused, partially invested portfolio. Views on buying the dip range from waiting for deeper corrections to disciplined, gradual accumulation without leverage, with aggressive bottom-fishing not being the consensus. Overall, the consensus suggests that the four-year cycle is no longer a standalone rule; macro liquidity, regulation, and asset fundamentals drive crypto price action, encouraging a gradual, gold-like value accumulation driven by stablecoins, institutional adoption, and a transition toward a more structurally driven market.