Bitcoin Price Edges Higher Ahead of Year-End Options Expiry as Volatility Looms

Bitcoin climbs marginally as a massive 300,000 options expiry and ETF outflows loom, signaling potential near-term volatility and cautious market sentiment.

Rich by Coin

2025-12-25

Bitcoin price has risen 0.04% over the last 24 hours to about $87,785. Ethereum price has fallen 0.45% to around $2,941. USDT and USDC have remained firm while most altcoins such as BNB, XRP, and Solana have been range-bound. Alternative’s own Fear & Greed Index registered 23, continuing in the ‘Extreme Fear’ zone.

However, Bitcoin has been trading lower without a Santa rally. Year-end volatility due to the expiry of 300,000 Bitcoin options and ETF outflows has raised investor caution. In particular, options expiring on 26 December (local time) totaling about $23 billion could amplify near-term volatility. Options settle at expiry; large buys or sells could occur during the process.

Such a magnitude expiry is among the largest on record and could trigger price swings at year-end. Although the 300,000-option expiry does not necessarily lead to price declines, downside risk is being discussed. Bloomberg, in a 24 December report, projected that Bitcoin could post the worst quarterly performance since the collapse of TerraUSD and Three Arrows Capital in Q2 2022. Bloomberg cited reasons for the bearish outlook: a shift to net selling in spot Bitcoin ETFs, continued preference for gold as a safe haven, lack of clear Bitcoin buy-side participants, and ongoing selling by long-term holders. Bloomberg noted that Bitcoin had fallen below the 365-day moving average near $10,200, suggesting deeper correction risks unless the level is regained. TechStock² pointed to key points to watch for Bitcoin this week: ETF fund outflows receding or reversing, volatility trends after the expiry, macro-risk preference shifts, and news around institutions and infrastructure affecting midterm sentiment. The Bank of Korea, in its 2026 monetary policy direction, said it would restart testing the central bank digital currency (CBDC) and would actively participate in discussions on stablecoin legislation. The government proposal for a Digital Asset Basic Law (two-step legislation) is unlikely to be announced this month as the central bank has reservations on financial stability.