The BNB Chain is heavily betting on prediction markets, with several community-focused projects. @opinionlabsxyz: A top-three platform, recognized as a leader in macro forecasting. @predictdotfun: Allows prediction positions to be used in DeFi (yield, lending). @0xProbable: A zero-fee, native on-chain protocol co-incubated by PancakeSwap.
@42: An “event asset issuance platform” using Bonding Curves, creating a new asset class. @Bentodotfun: Focuses on social, user-generated market designs for better discovery. Infrastructure projects like @APRO_Oracle and @soraoracle are also being built to support the ecosystem. How to Participate Retail investors can engage with BNB Chain projects early to potentially earn points or future airdrops: Trade on live platforms like Opinion Labs and Predict Fun.
Test zero-fee predictions on Probable. Join waitlists for beta access to projects like Bento and 42. Prediction markets represent a shift towards “fat applications” that price real-world information and cognition. Polymarket broke Kalshi’s long-standing monopoly in the compliant market, proving that prediction markets can break out of the “legal gray area” and transform into a transparent and compliant “information derivatives market.”
A little over a month later, on October 7th, ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, injected $2 billion, officially bringing prediction markets into the view of Wall Street. This marked the formal entry of prediction markets as a new asset class into the core of global finance. As the chart shows, weekly trading volume in the prediction market has recently experienced an unprecedented exponential surge, peaking at over $4 billion. Kalshi: A Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC as early as 2020, becoming the first regulated platform focusing on event-driven contracts.
Kalshi is the earliest and most mature CFTC-regulated platform, enabling US institutions and retail investors to legally and directly trade event contracts in US dollars. Polymarket: It deliberately downplays its “gambling” attributes, emphasizing instead its informational attributes. There are no obscure on-chain interactions; settlement is directly done in the USDC stablecoin. This “fine” is actually a “ticket” to enter the mainstream world; it cleared compliance obstacles and paved the way for its upcoming entry into the US market.
Polymarket’s success is built on a highly controlled, operationally-intensive model. It’s like a meticulously crafted workshop, heavily reliant on the aesthetics of the official team and institutional funding to keep running. This makes it perfect for super-products like the US presidential election, but when faced with more fragmented, higher-frequency mass demands, this centralized framework proves too slow and cumbersome. The core contradictions that prevented the industry from booming from 1 to 100 remain unresolved in Polymarket’s model.
The problems Polymarket faced are precisely the best entry point for newcomers. For newcomers without historical baggage, there’s no need to replicate a “cautious giant.” The market’s pain points have provided clear guidance: users are tired of censorship and are calling for freedom; capital is tired of inefficiency and craves leverage. The next generation of prediction markets is evolving to: moving towards a permissionless creation model; introducing leverage to enhance capital efficiency and attract users; focusing on vertical markets; enhancing user experience through an aggregator model.
Moving towards a permissionless creation model: anyone can quickly create predictive events for specific topics, achieving true “pricing of everything.” Introducing leverage to enhance capital efficiency and attractiveness: leverage can attract high-frequency speculators and enable institutional hedging at lower costs. Focus on vertical markets: specialized platforms can attract professionals and deepen liquidity in core areas. Enhancing User Experience: from Standalone Applications to Traffic Aggregators, with aggregators improving discovery and trading by embedding underlying liquidity.
The BNB Chain ecosystem explicitly recognizes the need for infrastructure improvement alongside platform innovations to support scalable prediction markets.
Leave a Reply