Ethereum Supply in Loss as Whales Split: Analysis Signals Downside Risk

More than 40% of ETH remains in loss amid weak prices. The market shows mixed whale activity and four warning signals of potential further downside per the latest analysis.

Rich by Coin

2025-12-26

Over 40% of Ethereum supply is now held at a loss amid prolonged price weakness. Ethereum whales are split, with some selling while others accumulate despite losses. The analysis has also identified four key warning signals indicating that Ethereum could face further downside pressure. Erik Voorhees, founder of Venice AI, deposited 1,635 ETH, worth approximately $4.81 million, into THORChain to swap for Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

The move follows a similar transaction earlier this month, when Voorhees swapped ETH for BCH from a wallet that had remained inactive for nearly nine years, signaling a notable portfolio shift. Arthur Hayes has also been transferring ETH to exchanges. Commenting on the strategy, Hayes said he is “rotating out of ETH and into high-quality DeFi names,” citing expectations that select tokens could outperform Ethereum as fiat liquidity conditions improve. Winslow Strong, a partner at Cluster Capital, transferred 1,900 ETH along with 307 cbBTC to Coinbase, bringing the total value of the transfer to approximately $32.62 million.

Such transfers do not automatically confirm selling activity. However, movements to centralized exchanges are commonly viewed as potential sell-side signals, particularly during periods of heightened market uncertainty. The ETH was withdrawn one month ago at an average price of $3,402.25, while the cbBTC was accumulated between August 2025 and December 2025 at an average price of $97,936.68. If sold, the total loss would amount to approximately $3.907 million.

Not all whales are exiting the market. Whale address 0x46DB has maintained aggressive buying throughout December. The investor has accumulated 41,767 ETH since December 3 at an average price of $3,130. The current position shows an unrealized loss of over $8.3 million.

BitMine, with an unrealized loss of approximately $3.5 billion, has also made notable purchases this week. This divergence highlights a clear split in market outlook. While BitMine believes ETH could be positioned for potential upside over the coming months, the ongoing selling activity suggests that other large players remain less confident about ETH’s prospects. The Coinbase Premium Index has fallen to -0.08, its lowest level in a month.