Altcoins remain under pressure as Bitcoin dominance stays elevated, with only a short-term mini altseason possible in early January. Analysts say that a sustained altcoin rally will likely hinge on improved liquidity and macro easing, positioning 2026 as a more realistic window for a full altseason. Bitcoin dominance hovers near 59% as the Altcoin Season Index sits around 37, signaling that capital remains heavily concentrated in Bitcoin and that most altcoins stay under pressure, even as pockets of optimism flicker around ETFs and select narratives. Market attention remains cautious as investors weigh evolving narratives and macro factors.
Market sentiment underscores the imbalance, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently dipping to about 28, firmly in fear territory, underscoring cautious investor posture. This mood aligns with liquidity constraints and a general reluctance to chase risk in the near term. Liquidity constraints and a clear institutional preference for Bitcoin have kept nearly 90% of top altcoins well below their all-time highs. This dynamic further weighs on broader altcoin momentum.
Crypto analyst Dr. Cat believes the altcoin market may be approaching a short-term turning point. Bitcoin dominance charts show a triple bearish setup at a key resistance level, a pattern historically associated with a drop in dominance that could let altcoins outperform briefly. He points to January 5 as a critical date, with Bitcoin’s resistance projected to move from roughly $89,000 to $96,000, potentially allowing Bitcoin’s price to rise while its dominance weakens. He suggests a mini altseason could occur between January 5 and 12 if these conditions hold, though gains may be limited and the market could remain crowded.
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