Bitcoin has fallen about 2% over the past 24 hours, with intraday highs roughly 3% below yesterday. While the price action looks unremarkable at first glance, on-chain metrics have shifted for the first time in nearly three months. For a signal to be confirmed, the On-Balance Volume must top 1.58 million.
Between December 21 and 26, prices advanced, yet OBV registered lower highs, forming a bearish OBV divergence that helps explain why the December 26 breakout failed, evidenced by a long tail on that day. Another signal comes from the Hodler Net Position Change indicator, which tracks addresses held for more than 155 days—the slowest market participants. On December 26, this metric flipped positive for the first time since late September, with long-term holders adding 3,783.8 BTC. They are not buying for short-term profits; they buy with conviction and for the longer term, signaling a notable shift in sentiment after nearly three months.
Despite these signals, Bitcoin still requires further upside progress. The price has not reclaimed 90,840 USD for almost two weeks, a zone that capped movement on December 12 and has since blocked attempts at recovery. If a rally continues, the next upside checkpoints sit near 97,190 USD, followed by the 101,710–107,470 USD range. On the downside, the 86,915 USD support has held since December 19; a breakdown could open a path to 80,560 USD amid tighter year-end liquidity. Taken together, the simultaneous appearance of OBV breakout potential and reinforced long-term buy pressure could push prices higher, underscoring the importance of timing for these signals.
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