Ethereum whales are defending their base, but pressure is building fast. Despite the market flipping risk-on, there’s still no clear rotational flow. On the daily charts, Ethereum dominance has been holding up well, with a late-November dip to 11.5% followed by a bounce toward 13%, aligning with ETH chopping sideways within the $3k-$3.5k area. ETH’s consolidation around support doesn’t appear random, as whales have defended their $2,796 cost basis—the realized price for long-term holders—with the price rebounding off that level three times.
Since 21 November, whales have accumulated 4.8 million ETH, equalling 4% of the circulating supply, lifting their holdings from 22.4 million to 27.2 million. This buildup coincides with roughly $4.8 billion in unrealized profits at current prices. Ethereum dominance and the whales’ realized price appear aligned during this period, underscoring whale support for ETH. The $2,796 cost basis has become a key level to watch as the market context evolves.
The key metric to watch now is Ethereum’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR), which rose to a six-month high of 2.964. That means about $2.96 of borrowed exposure for every $1 of ETH held without leverage. With leverage rising, and in the absence of macro catalysts, weak rotational flows and sustained volatility keep the risk of a de-leveraging cascade elevated. As a result, ETH could remain vulnerable to further selling pressure if liquidity conditions worsen.
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