Two leading CIOs debated whether Bitcoin’s four-year price cycle has ended as institutional participation reshapes market dynamics. They noted that ETF approvals in early 2024, progress in regulation, and the rise of stablecoins have become dominant forces beyond traditional cyclical patterns. The discussions suggest a shift toward a longer-term bull narrative rather than reliance on halving-driven cycles.
One executive argued that the four-year cycle, tied to halving events, is no longer valid and is giving way to a roughly decade-long bull run. He also highlighted that Bitcoin’s volatility has cooled relative to major tech assets and that the typical institutional allocation process spans about eight meetings or quarters.
Another CIO cautioned that it may be too early to declare the cycle dead, but market structure has fundamentally changed. Institutions now pursue strategic asset allocation, buying BTC to balance portfolios and smoothing pullbacks, which reduces the severity of declines seen in earlier years. Investors are shifting from questions about what Bitcoin is to how it impacts portfolio correlations and inflation hedges, and Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a commodity with attention to liquidity and the Fed’s actions.
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