A fresh XRP supply shock narrative has been making rounds on X, with several large accounts circulating a Glassnode chart of exchange balances and arguing ETFs are rapidly draining liquid supply. One widely shared post from @unknowDLT on Dec. 27 claimed XRP ETFs are absorbing supply fast, with only about 1.5B left on exchanges and ~750M absorbed in weeks, suggesting a supply shock by early 2026. The post tied the thesis to the Clarity Act, arguing it would force price discovery and position 2026 as the moment XRP shifts from speculation to global liquidity infrastructure.
Vet_X0 responded on Dec. 28 with a screenshot showing exchange balances closer to 16 billion XRP rather than 1.5 billion, framing the supply-shock talk as a static misread of a dynamic market. He wrote there is no XRP supply shock on exchanges, noting holders have close to 16B XRP on exchanges readily available and that anyone without XRP on exchanges could send theirs within 3-4 seconds. He argued that exchange balances and order-book liquidity are not fixed quantities; they change rapidly with price and incentives, making a supply shock a much higher bar than a chart implying balances are trending down. He added that XRP listed on orderbooks for sale is dynamic, elastic, and can thicken or dry out in seconds; sometimes $10M buying can push price higher, sometimes $100M buying does not stop price from falling, as markets are too dynamic to plot movements.
The debate also touched on wallet labeling and counts, with Vet saying the published list should be treated as conservative, not exhaustive, and noting that Upbit alone represents only a portion of XRP accounts. Some observers argued that even with large balances, custody structures, escrow cadence, and institutional accumulation could keep the effective float tight, and a true supply shock would require a pronounced, urgent bid. Dman Trader pointed to monthly escrow mechanics and said ETF holdings sit in XRPL wallets, locked up a portion of supply, while some inventories are hard to measure. For now, XRP traded around $1.8982, and liquidity remained responsive rather than frozen.
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