The Cardano price is up about 13% since the December 25 low. It has now moved into a breakout zone inside a falling wedge structure. ADA is still down almost 10% this month, but this week is not only about a relief bounce. Three signals now suggest the trend might be preparing for a reversal if the price confirms the breakout.
The falling wedge pattern has guided the price lower since early November. ADA tested the upper trendline of that wedge near $0.69. A daily close above that line opens a potential 79% upside target toward the same $0.69 level.
That target comes from measuring the vertical distance between the lowest trendline-touching swing inside the wedge and the highest swing inside the wedge, then projecting it upward from the breakout point. That could be the ADA price projection if the breakout happens. RSI, the Relative Strength Index that measures momentum and identifies overbought or oversold strength, supports that idea.
Between December 1 and December 25, ADA made a lower low. During the same period, RSI made a higher low. This is a bullish divergence. It shows sellers lost strength even while prices made new lows.
That divergence triggered the current 12.8% bounce. If ADA breaks above $0.38, the RSI divergence could act as a trend-reversal signal, not just a bounce signal. Whales holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA have increased their balances as the breakout signs appeared.
On December 26, they held 3.72 billion ADA. That number has climbed to 3.83 billion ADA, an addition of almost $41 million. The increase started the day after the RSI divergence flashed and continued as the price moved toward the wedge resistance. This timing matters because whales often accumulate before trend changes, not after.
Coin activity, measured by the spent coins age band, which tracks how much supply is moving on-chain from younger and older wallets, has dropped sharply. On December 27, it registered about 149.43 million ADA. It has since fallen to 116.16 million ADA, a 22% drop. ADA trades close to $0.38.
A daily close above $0.38 confirms the wedge breakout. If that happens, the structure allows a move toward $0.42. Reclaiming $0.47 is especially important because the ADA failed to recover that level on November 17 and again on December 9–10. Above $0.51 and $0.55, momentum expands, and the path toward the $0.69 projection becomes realistic. If ADA loses $0.34, the falling wedge remains active, but the chance of a breakout weakens. Right now, ADA is in its most important test in over a month. The wedge and RSI hint at a reversal. Whales are buying. Coin activity is falling. But without a confirmed breakout above $0.38 and strength toward $0.47, these hints do not become a trend.
Cardano (ADA) has risen about 13% from the December 25 low, now moving into a breakout zone inside a falling wedge that has guided the decline since early November. A daily close above the upper trendline near $0.69 would open a potential upside target of about 79% toward the same $0.69 level, based on the wedge’s measured height. The setup implies a possible trend reversal if the breakout confirms. RSI supports the reversal thesis, showing bullish divergence from December 1 to December 25: a lower price low paired with a higher RSI low signals momentum shift and has helped fuel the current bounce of 12.8%.
A break above $0.38 would reinforce this divergence as a trend-reversal signal, not merely a bounce. Whales holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA have increased their balances, rising from 3.72 billion ADA on December 26 to 3.83 billion ADA, a roughly $41 million increase, suggesting accumulation ahead of a potential trend change. On-chain activity measured by the spent coins age band has fallen, dropping from about 149.43 million ADA on December 27 to 116.16 million ADA—a 22% decline as price heads toward wedge resistance.
A daily close above $0.38 would confirm the wedge breakout, opening a path toward $0.42. Reclaiming $0.47 is crucial since ADA failed to regain that level on November 17 and December 9–10; beyond $0.51 and $0.55, momentum could expand toward the 0.69 projection. If ADA slips below $0.34, the wedge remains active and breakout odds weaken. For now, ADA sits at its most important test in over a month, with wedge and RSI signals hinting at a reversal, buyers returning, and on-chain activity cooling.
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