Ripple’s XRP has traded below its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) for 70 days, a technical level that preceded significant price increases in previous market cycles, according to cryptocurrency analysts. The token has now completed a 70-day period under the SMA, with no breakout confirmed.
Every cycle, when XRP breaks below the 50-week SMA and stays there for roughly 50–84 days, a strong rally has followed. In 2017, XRP traded below the 50-week SMA for 70 days before climbing more than 200%. In 2021, a 49-day period below the same level preceded a 70% gain. In 2024, after 84 days below the SMA, XRP rose more than 850%.
XRP’s current 2025 chart pattern resembles earlier formations from 2016 and 2024. The 2025 chart shows a similar structure, now reaching 150 days, characterized by sideways price action and low trading volume. Analyst Egrag Crypto has published a fractal model that tracks XRP’s price behavior with approximately 82% accuracy, outlining a range of potential price levels dependent on XRP continuing to follow the historical path. The model notes that breaking below certain lower bounds would weaken or invalidate it, and specifies a time range for possible price expansion between June and October 2026.
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