Bitcoin (BTC) started 2026 on a strong note, fueling optimism among bulls. However, a number of analysts warn that the year’s direction could hinge on halving dynamics and macro factors that could trigger a pullback.
Last year, Bitcoin experienced a roller-coaster ride, peaking at $126,000 in October before finishing the year around $87,000, marking the first annual close in negative territory after the halving. Some analysts view this volatility as a sign that the market remains vulnerable to macro shocks.
Analysts describe an “Adam-and-Eve” pattern, suggesting a recovery could begin if BTC climbs back above $94,000. If the price clears that level, traders see the potential for a renewed bull run.
Forecasts vary widely: JAVON MARKS sees a fresh high near $126,200, while Crypto GEMS imagines a peak around $210,000. The divergence underscores the uncertain path ahead for BTC in 2026.
On-chain data show bulls moving funds toward self-custody, with reports of around 20,000 BTC withdrawn from exchanges, potentially easing selling pressure. The move reflects a shift toward wallet-based storage and may reduce near-term downside risk.
Bear cases point to the traditional four-year cycle: if the cycle continues, BTC could slip toward $32,000 in January. Analysts caution that such a drop would reflect a continuation of the cyclical pattern observed in past halving events.
Geopolitical developments, including remarks by former President Trump about Venezuela and Mexico, have also fed volatility, with BTC briefly skirting $90,000 on headlines. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical shocks and macro news that can swing sentiment in the short term.
Leave a Reply