The United States launched a major military operation against Venezuela over the weekend, heightening geopolitical risk and potentially boosting safe-haven demand for gold. Venezuela is believed to hold about 161 metric tonnes of gold, valued at roughly $22 billion, which could amplify price sensitivity to the conflict. Analysts expect a gap-up opening for gold and other commodities on Monday as risk sentiment shifts.
Gold prices had posted their strongest yearly gain since 1979 by rising nearly 70% in 2025, and market participants will reassess levels in light of the weekend strikes. Bullion prices had moved higher earlier, with gold and silver beginning 2026 on a steady note as investors digest the upcoming rebalancing of a key commodity index.
Analysts outline five drivers likely to push gold prices higher on Monday, including the heightened geopolitical risk from the Venezuela strike, crude oil price dynamics, and changing gold-silver dynamics. Among them, Tether’s growing gold holdings are seen as a structural floor for gold, with purchases not tied to its gold-backed token XAUT and funded from corporate profits as part of reserve diversification; over 100 tonnes of gold held by Tether are not linked to token issuance. Currency moves, such as weakness in the Indian rupee, could add to bullion demand in developing markets and widen investor interest in safe-haven assets.
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