Shiba Inu (SHIB) kicked off 2026 with a sharp rebound, rising about 30% in the first week and roughly 48% from the December 31 low. The move appears driven by meme-sector momentum rather than new large-holder accumulation, according to on-chain data. Whale activity has declined since year-end, supporting the view that the rally is not a classic breakout fueled by fresh whale buying.
On-chain activity shows limited support from small investors. The spent coins age band metric shows SHIB moved broadly across holder groups, with spent coins rising from about 268.9 billion to 747.1 billion tokens between December 31 and January 7, a roughly 178% increase, suggesting holders were repositioning rather than accumulating. After January 7, spent-coins collapsed to about 146.0 billion, an ~80% drop, while the price found a bottom, indicating profit-taking has largely run its course.
For a meaningful breakout in Q1, several conditions must change: sustained trading volume, a rebound in the Money Flow Index (MFI), and a daily close above $0.0000095. A daily close above $0.0000091 with confirmation above $0.0000095 would align with a breakout, while initial support anchors sit near $0.0000088, $0.0000080, and $0.0000078. The current movement remains a meme-driven beta rally, tempered by profit-taking and RSI divergence; a Q1 breakout depends on MFI recovery and renewed buying interest from low-timeframe traders.
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