Following the recent bullish momentum seen early in the year, Bitcoin retraced and now trades near $90,000. While the latest retracement suggests resistance around $94,000, on-chain analysis points to a more meaningful barrier just beneath $100,000. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. shared a hypothesis on X based on the Realized Price New Whale STH Vs Old Whale LTH indicator. He noted that new whales have an average entry price near the $99,000 level.
Currently, Bitcoin trades near $90,000, meaning new whales would be sitting on unrealized losses if they delay selling toward their $99,000 entry. If the price advances toward that level, Adler Jr. says these investors might exit at break-even or small losses, adding downside pressure. As a result, the $99,000 level becomes a major resistance, both psychologically and technically.
CryptoQuant data show Binance holders have an average cost basis around $52,691, implying many traders are in profit. Miner Whales (1,000+ BTC) carry an average cost basis of $58,681, suggesting miners are also in profit, and Long-term holders show an average acquisition cost of $39,681. Overall, Bitcoin appears structurally bullish with steady investor support, and any downside moves are likely to be short-lived; as of this writing, the price hovers around $90,624 with little movement over the past day.
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