Ethereum is struggling to reclaim the $3,100 level as price action tightens and the market braces for a decisive move. The analysis focuses on Ethereum’s Accumulating Addresses Realized Price, a metric that tracks the average cost basis of addresses that consistently accumulate ETH rather than trade it actively. Unlike momentum indicators, this measure reflects where long-term participants are willing to commit capital over extended periods. Notably, this accumulation cost has trended steadily higher since 2020.
Even during the severe 2022–2023 drawdown, when ETH price corrected sharply, long-term holders largely held their ground instead of capitulating. That behavior established a durable foundation beneath the market. Today, this realized price has stabilized in the $2,700–$2,800 range, effectively forming a structural cost zone for Ethereum. As ETH hovers just above this area, the market faces a critical question: whether this long-term support continues to anchor price, or if shifting macro conditions finally challenge a regime that has held for years.
The report argues that the debate around Ethereum is shifting. The key issue is no longer whether the $2,700–$2,800 accumulation zone holds in the short term, but whether this long-standing accumulation regime can persist indefinitely. According to data from CryptoQuant, Ethereum stands out sharply from the broader altcoin market when viewed through this lens. Since 2022, most altcoins have suffered deep drawdowns without ever forming a durable accumulation cost base.
That absence of consistent long-term buying helps explain why recoveries across the altcoin complex have been weaker and more fragile. Ethereum, by contrast, has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to retain long-term holder conviction through multiple stress periods, including 2018, 2020, 2022, and even the volatility seen in 2025. However, markets evolve, and structural regimes do not last forever. Periods of apparent stability are often when underlying assumptions are most vulnerable to change.
From a forward-looking perspective, two scenarios stand out. As long as ETH price trades near or above its accumulation cost, it signals that long-term buyers remain engaged, reinforcing Ethereum’s relative resilience compared with most altcoins. On the other hand, a sustained break below this cost zone would imply a meaningful behavioral shift among long-term holders—one that could challenge the idea that Ethereum has permanently escaped its pre-2020 valuation framework. In today’s environment, short-term price swings dominate attention, but it is this structural battle beneath the surface that may ultimately define Ethereum’s next major cycle.
Ethereum is currently consolidating around the $3,100 level after failing to reclaim higher resistance zones, reflecting a market caught between stabilization and continuation risk. The chart shows ETH trading below its short- and medium-term moving averages, with the 50-day and 100-day averages now acting as dynamic resistance rather than support. This shift confirms that the broader structure remains corrective following the rejection from the $4,000–$4,200 region earlier in the cycle. Notably, the $3,000–$3,100 area has emerged as a critical pivot.
Price has repeatedly defended this zone, suggesting the presence of demand and short-term accumulation. However, upside momentum remains limited, as each bounce has been met with selling pressure near descending moving averages. This behavior is typical of markets attempting to form a base after a prolonged drawdown rather than initiating a clean trend reversal. From a structural perspective, ETH remains above the long-term moving average, which continues to slope upward. This indicates that the broader macro trend has not fully broken down, even though short-term momentum is weak. Volume has also declined during recent rebounds, reinforcing the idea that buyers lack conviction. For bulls, a sustained reclaim of the $3,300 level would be required to shift momentum and challenge the bearish structure. Until then, Ethereum appears locked in a consolidation phase, with downside risks persisting if the $3,000 support fails to hold.
Ethereum is holding near the $3,100 level as buyers weigh a potential breakout after a prolonged consolidation. The focus is on its Accumulating Addresses Realized Price, a metric that captures the cost basis of ETH addresses that steadily accumulate rather than trade. This accumulation cost has trended higher since 2020, and even during the 2022–2023 pullback long-term holders largely stood their ground, laying a stable foundation for the market. The realized price now sits in the $2,700–$2,800 range, forming a structural support zone that could anchor price in the near term.
From a forward-looking view, the debate centers on whether this regime can persist. If ETH trades near or above its accumulation cost, long-term buyers remain engaged, underscoring Ethereum’s resilience relative to many altcoins. A sustained break below the zone would imply a meaningful shift among long-term holders and challenge the idea that Ethereum has permanently escaped its pre-2020 valuation framework. CryptoQuant data shows Ethereum’s behavior stands out vs the broader altcoin market, helping explain why recoveries there have been weaker without persistent long-term buying.
Technically, ETH is consolidating around $3,100 after failing to reclaim higher resistance zones. The price is below the short- and medium-term moving averages, with the 50-day and 100-day averages acting as dynamic resistance rather than support, signaling a corrective structure since the earlier rejection from the $4,000–$4,200 zone. The $3,000–$3,100 area has emerged as a critical pivot, with price repeatedly defending this zone and suggesting ongoing demand, albeit with limited upside momentum as moves meet resistance near the descending moving averages. A reclaim of $3,300 would be required to shift the momentum and challenge the bearish structure; until then, Ethereum remains in a consolidation phase with downside risk if the $3,000 support fails.
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