Bitcoin’s mass appeal has helped it surge during the past few years, with its value rising 430% since 2023. But the past 12 months haven’t been so kind to Bitcoin investors. The value of the crypto has slid about 4% during the past year as some investors shift their attention away from more speculative plays and toward safer investments. This volatility has likely led some investors to wonder where Bitcoin might end up in a few years.
Despite its recent price decline, Bitcoin has several significant tailwinds that could propel it higher during the coming years. The first of these is that Bitcoin continues to gain institutional backing from investment firms and banks. The launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024 opened up the possibility for everyday investors to easily buy and sell the cryptocurrency. That helped push Bitcoin’s value higher, and Bitcoin’s popularity, in turn, has prompted other financial firms to offer new investment opportunities as well.
For example, Morgan Stanley recently filed paperwork to launch its own Bitcoin ETF, as well as ETFs for Ethereum and Solana. The bank first allowed some of its customers to add cryptocurrencies to their portfolios last year, and it now appears eager to give them even more crypto investment options. This gives further validity to the idea of Bitcoin as part of a comprehensive investment strategy, and it comes as the U.S. government has taken a more open regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies. The government has even established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which includes existing seized Bitcoins that the government will continue to hold.
The point here is that Bitcoin continually marches toward relevance in the financial world and among governments. This has been a catalyst for Bitcoin’s value in the past, and it’s likely to remain the same in the coming years if more banks adopt Bitcoin and if the government continues to support integration of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system. Some bullish estimates put Bitcoin’s price at $250,000 by 2028, while the more extreme outliers predict Bitcoin at $1 million. It’s important not to take any predictions too literally, though.
Consider that JPMorgan analysts said in 2025 that Bitcoin would be worth $165,000 by the end of the year — and it currently sits at about $90,000. Although Bitcoin has a lot going for it, there certainly are some signs that a prolonged slowdown could be around the corner. The first indications of this are already evident, with some investors shunning the crypto during the past year, causing its value to drop by about 4%. Some investors have become increasingly concerned about the direction of the U.S. economy, as layoffs rose dramatically last year. Although the unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.4%, the U.S. economy added only 50,000 jobs in December, which was lower than the average analyst estimate of 73,000. When the economy is uncertain, investors tend to seek safer assets and shift some of their money out of riskier investments. Bitcoin, despite its recent advances toward being considered a legitimate investment, remains far more speculative than traditional stocks and bonds. This might mean that if there’s further economic instability and layoffs continue to rise or the unemployment rate goes higher, some Bitcoin investors may start looking to the exits. Citigroup analysts say that in the worst-case scenario — a global recession — Bitcoin could fall to $78,000 during the next year. What happens in the following two years would likely depend on how well the U.S. recovers. For all the reasons above, I believe investors should generally be optimistic about where Bitcoin is headed during the coming years, although I do think there could be a period of stagnation in Bitcoin’s price. I think the job market is a big question mark right now, mostly pointing to a slowdown rather than growth. The next year or so could see some volatility in Bitcoin’s value before it significantly rebounds.
On the bullish side, Bitcoin benefits from growing institutional backing and the entry of traditional finance into crypto, including the 2024 launch of Bitcoin ETFs that made trading easier for retail investors. Firms like Morgan Stanley have signaled further crypto offerings, and the government’s evolving regulatory stance, including a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, underscores Bitcoin’s potential mainstream relevance and integration with the broader financial system.
Yet there are notable risks. After a roughly 4% decline over the last year, analysts warn that macro headwinds and economic uncertainty could temper gains. Some estimates push Bitcoin toward higher targets by 2028, such as $250,000, or even up to $1 million, though these should be viewed as speculative. By contrast, JPMorgan suggested Bitcoin could reach around $165,000 by the end of 2025, but current levels hover near $90,000, highlighting potential volatility and selective optimism.
The downside scenario emphasizes continued economic fragmentation or a recession, which Citi analysts warn could pull Bitcoin down to about $78,000 within the next year. In such an environment, softer job growth and a cautious consumer could weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin, even as some investors remain attracted to its potential as a hedge or speculative play. Overall, while the medium-term outlook is cautiously optimistic, the path may include periods of stagnation or volatility before a more sustained rebound.
Citigroup analysts say that in the worst-case scenario — a global recession — Bitcoin could fall to $78,000 during the next year. What happens in the following two years would likely depend on how well the U.S. recovers. For all the reasons above, I believe investors should generally be optimistic about where Bitcoin is headed during the coming years, although I do think there could be a period of stagnation in Bitcoin’s price.
I think the job market is a big question mark right now, mostly pointing to a slowdown rather than growth. The next year or so could see some volatility in Bitcoin’s value before it significantly rebounds.
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