Weekly notional trading volume across major prediction markets totaled approximately $5.23 billion in the week ending Jan. 11, relatively flat (down 1.6%) week over week from the late-December/early-January holiday peak of $5.32 billion. Kalshi’s lead remains category-driven, meaning market share will likely fluctuate largely based on the sports calendar. Sports trading accounted for a whopping 91.1% of Kalshi’s volume (and 39.9% of Polymarket’s) last week. NFL playoffs will mean fewer games each successive week, with each being primetime and driving significantly higher volume than single regular-season games.
For the week of Jan. 5-11, Kalshi notional volume was approximately $2.01 billion (+1.7% WoW). Polymarket notional volume was about $1.50 billion (+4.1% WoW). Opinion notional volume was around $1.60 billion (-11.7% WoW).
Kalshi notional volume was $2,012,006,557 (+1.7%), Polymarket notional volume was $1,503,807,692 (+4.1%), and Opinion notional volume was $1,597,197,928 (-11.7%), for a total of $5,232,717,614 (-1.6%). Compared with the prior week, both Kalshi and Polymarket posted small gains to mark their best weeks yet, and the data also shows a disproportionate reliance on sports markets among U.S.-based, CFTC-regulated exchanges, including Polymarket US, which still focuses on sports markets with more markets coming soon.
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