Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs in 2026, but only if three catalysts align: avoiding another October 10-style flash crash, passage of the Clarity Act, and a reasonably positive uptrend in the broader stock market. He noted that Bitcoin has already moved about 5% this week to around $96,000, signaling renewed momentum. “We’ll go substantially higher” if those conditions are met, Hougan said.
Regarding the Clarity Act, the bill would resolve regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. Under the Senate version, the SEC would regulate ancillary assets — tokens whose value relies on issuer efforts — while the CFTC would regulate digital commodities like Bitcoin. The bill would ban passive yield on stablecoins, but allow rewards on activities like transactions and DeFi liquidity, and it would protect creators of non-custodial software from prosecution under money-transmitting laws. It also would grant Treasury sweeping surveillance powers, including the ability to freeze crypto transactions for up to 30 days without a court order and to designate money-laundering concerns.
Hougan assigns a yellow light to the Clarity Act’s passage and says the broader stock market needs a slightly positive uptrending channel for Bitcoin to break to new highs. There’s still selling pressure around $100,000 as whales seek exits, which could cap gains for much of 2026. He cautioned that the remaining sell pressure could persist through a large portion of the year, influencing the pace at which Bitcoin trends toward new highs.
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