BTC and ETH options are expiring today in what market participants are calling a stress test for the new options-heavy market structure. Approximately $2.3 billion of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to settle, marking the first major derivatives settlement of 2026 and a major liquidity inflection point. Nearly $2.3 billion of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, with roughly $1.94 billion tied to Bitcoin and $347.7 million to Ethereum, signaling the first broad-based derivatives settlement of the year.
Open interest in Bitcoin options has surged to about $74.1 billion, overtaking roughly $65.2 billion in Bitcoin futures, underscoring a shift toward structured exposure through options rather than simple directional bets. Bitcoin trades around $89,746, below the near-term max pain of $92,000, while Ethereum sits near $2,958 with a $3,200 max-pain band, indicating a gravitational pull around those strikes. The options book shows a put-to-call ratio of 0.81 for Bitcoin and 0.84 for Ethereum across tens of thousands of contracts, reflecting cautious optimism rather than exuberance, though hedging activity by market makers can reinforce price moves.
As open interest in options now exceeds futures, analysts say the market may rely more on risk management than leverage, potentially dampening or amplifying volatility depending on post-expiry flows. The core test is whether Bitcoin can sustain above $92,000 and Ethereum near $3,200 after settlement, which would validate the cautious optimism embedded in the ratios and suggest a more stable volatility regime; a failure would reveal the fragility of the options books.
Leave a Reply