ETH is holding above rising trend support after bouncing from the ~$2,800 low. Higher lows suggest buyers are regaining control following the recent correction. The Pi Cycle Top Indicator shows no macro top, with key moving averages still far apart.
Ethereum’s price structure is echoing a late-2024 playbook that previously preceded a sharp 75% rally, as trend support holds and long-term overheating signals remain absent. As of January 23, Ether (ETH) was trending above its prevailing ascending trendline support after rebounding from its local low at around $2,800. This pattern resembled its late-2024 reset before the market resumed higher, as shown in the chart below.
The chart structure is straightforward: after a strong advance, ETH corrected, then began printing higher lows, a sign that sellers are losing control while buyers defend dips earlier than before. ETH’s consolidation in 2024 occurred after it slipped below its 111-day moving average (MA111; teal) support. Later, it reclaimed the wave, leading the price toward the previous top.
If the pattern repeats in 2026, ETH could move toward its previous top near $4,775 or higher. On-chain cycle signals also argue against “top” conditions. The Pi Cycle Top Indicator—which compares the 111-day moving average (MA111; teal) with a 2x multiple of the 350-day moving average (MA350x2; purple)—shows MA111 near 3,372 versus MA350x2 around 6,106.
Right now, MA111 is still far below MA350×2. It means ETH is not in the kind of overheated melt-up phase that typically marks major tops. That’s generally a bullish neutral backdrop.
The Pi Cycle cross would only become relevant later if the rebound turns into a prolonged, steep uptrend. In the best case scenario, ETH will close above $6,000 to test the MA350×2 line, thus setting up a new record high. Ether’s chart is also flashing an ascending-triangle fractal that fits the “not overheated yet” on-chain read.
ETH is printing higher lows into a relatively flat resistance band near the mid-$3,000s, showing buyers are stepping in earlier on each dip while sellers defend the same ceiling. If ETH clears that horizontal cap decisively, the pattern’s measured-move logic keeps the prior peak zone near $4,460–$4,800 in view. These dynamics paint a bullish-neutral backdrop, where sustained strength above key trend lines remains the primary driver of upside potential.
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