Hoskinson Warns US Recession Risk Amid AI Bubble and China Trade Shift

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson warns that converging forces like an AI bubble and a pivot by allies toward China could push the US into recession without timely policy intervention.

Rich by Coin

2026-01-23

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson warned that the United States faces a significant risk of recession if several global forces converge. In a recent commentary, he said a potential AI bubble burst, combined with long-time U.S. allies shifting trade and investment toward China, could push the economy into recession. As a result, Hoskinson argued that prolonged economic decoupling would sharply reduce U.S. consumption and could become economically catastrophic without timely policy intervention.

KEY POINTS Hoskinson identifies retaliatory EU tariffs, a potential AI bubble burst, and a shift in trade toward China as major risks to the U.S. economy. He warns that a recession becomes inevitable if these pressures persist without intervention. Goldman Sachs estimates a 35% odds that the U.S. will enter a recession this year.

Hoskinson notes that decisive action by the U.S. government could still prevent or mitigate a downturn. Investors should monitor policy responses and macro indicators as AI-driven dynamics and global trade realignments unfold, as these factors will influence the near-term risk landscape and potentially shape consumption and growth.