Ukraine currently lacks a regulatory framework for Web3-based prediction markets, and existing law does not recognize such platforms. Polymarket and similar services have been blocked as unauthorized gambling operators.
Dmitry Nikolaievskyi, Chief Legal Counsel at the Digital Economy Development Office under the Ministry of Digital Transformation, disclosed the stalemate and noted about 200 gambling-related websites operate domestically. He argued the Polymarket ban was enacted under existing legal grounds through proper procedures, yet he acknowledged wartime market conditions may have accelerated regulator responses. Ukraine’s law does not include the concept of ‘prediction markets.’ Nikolaievskyi also called for the long-delayed ‘Virtual Assets’ law to allow both businesses and individuals to operate crypto legally.
Until that law passes, platforms offering crypto bets on events are effectively treated as unlicensed gambling by the state. The near-term outlook for changes to gambling definitions remains unlikely, leaving prediction markets in regulatory deadlock. PlayCity has criticized Polymarket for lacking a gambling license and for markets tied to the war, noting that complaints can be filed against suspected platforms and that regulator attention has increased due to war-related bets. Polymarket reportedly saw over $270 million in war-related bets, including markets predicting territorial occupation.
Kalshi and PredictIt operate in a gray area, and NKEK has issued guidelines to block access to prediction markets through ISPs following PlayCity’s recommendations. Polymarket is currently restricted in more than 30 countries.
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