Bitcoin is testing key support around the 100-week moving average near $87,145, a level many traders view as a key defense for the secular downtrend. A break below $80,000 could open a path toward the April 2025 low near $76,000, underscoring the downside risks if buyers fail to reassert control. In recent trading, bitcoin hovered near $87,576, leaving the near-term trend firmly negative as the market digests on-chain signals and macro headlines.
The cost basis of U.S. spot bitcoin ETF buyers sits around $84,099, which has provided support during recent consolidation, helping cushion further declines. On the technical side, the price has already slipped below the 50-day moving average of just over $90,000, indicating lingering downside momentum. An initial drop also created a pricing gap extending as high as $89,265, a gap that market participants often revisit as price action evolves. CME gaps like this reflect instances when futures markets are closed while spot prices move, a phenomenon that has historically attracted price reversion pressure.
In addition to these dynamics, on-chain metrics show the 2024 average exchange withdrawal price near $82,713 and the True Market Mean Price just above $80,000, offering potential anchor levels for price action. CME gaps—created when futures markets close as spot prices move—are historical magnets for price reversion, adding to the watch on whether the market defends the $87,000–$88,000 zone or tests the $80,000 level.
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