On-chain data shows a disconnection between the network’s fundamentals and SOL’s price. The last time transaction volumes were this high, SOL was trading above $200. Solana could drop to the low 100s if bearish momentum is strong enough to break the $120 support.
The market tanked on Sunday right after the Asian session opened, pushing SOL to these lows. Trading volumes spiked by nearly 300% as a result. In total, over $6 billion worth of the token has exchanged hands during this relatively short period, reflecting the market’s strong reaction to the news. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index confirms a marked shift in sentiment, as this gauge fell from a recent high of 54 to 29 at the time of writing.
Investors continue to be skeptical about the near-term outlook for cryptos as Trump’s hostilities keep derailing all of the market’s latest attempts to recover. Despite the bearish news, on-chain data from Artemis shows that usage metrics have spiked lately, as demand from meme coins appears to be rising. Solana’s On-Chain Metrics – WAUs 5.1 million, up 4% compared to the previous week. Weekly transaction volumes have experienced a strong jump from 466 million TXs processed during the last week of December to 764.9 million transactions settled last week.
This translates into a remarkable 64% increase in just a month. Interestingly, the last two times that SOL peaked ($253 on November 2024 and $240 on September 2025), transaction volumes were near these levels. We are witnessing a strong disconnect between the network’s fundamentals and Solana’s token price, possibly as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are playing a much stronger role in shaping the valuation. Hence, we could expect a strong recovery once the dust settles a bit and Trump’s trade rhetoric calms.
From a fundamental standpoint, SOL seems to be undervalued based on historical patterns. Heading to the 4-hour chart, a sell signal recently flashed on Sunday as the token was dumped during the beginning of the Asian session. However, buying pressure increased as soon as SOL hit $120, reflecting this level’s technical relevance.
A spike in volumes indicates that this is a highly contested area, and one that is key to determining where SOL may be heading next. If the price manages to climb past $125, this would confirm a trend reversal and could put Solana on track to recover to $130 and then to $145. However, as market sentiment remains heavily depressed, the odds still favor a break below this mark.
In this case, the downside risk would be quite high as SOL could drop to the low 100s for the first time in months. On-chain data shows a disconnection between Solana’s network fundamentals and SOL’s price, with volumes reaching elevated levels not seen since earlier price highs. The last time transaction volumes were this intense, SOL traded above $200, and bears could push the price into the low 100s if the $120 support breaks.
The market tanked on Sunday after the Asian session opened, pushing SOL to these lows, with trading volumes jumping nearly 300% and more than $6 billion worth of SOL exchanging hands in a brief period. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicates a notable sentiment shift, sliding from a high of 54 to 29 at the time of writing. Despite bearish headlines, on-chain metrics from Artemis show rising usage, as meme-coin demand appears to be increasing. Solana’s on-chain activity remains robust, with WAUs at 5.1 million (up 4% WoW) and weekly transaction volumes rising from 466 million TXs to 764.9 million TXs—about a 64% increase in a single month.
Historically, the last two SOL peaks occurred near these volume levels, suggesting a potential undervaluation relative to on-chain activity and macro factors shaping valuation. From a price perspective, a sell signal appeared on the 4-hour chart as SOL dumped at the start of the Asian session. Buying pressure returned near the $120 level, highlighting its technical relevance as a contested area. If the price moves above $125, a reversal could unfold toward $130 and then $145. Yet, with sentiment still depressed, the downside risk remains substantial, with the possibility of SOL slipping into the low 100s if selling pressure intensifies.
Historically, the last two SOL peaks occurred near these volume levels, suggesting a potential undervaluation relative to on-chain activity and macro factors shaping valuation. From a price perspective, a sell signal appeared on the 4-hour chart as SOL dumped at the start of the Asian session. Buying pressure returned near the $120 level, highlighting its technical relevance as a contested area. If the price moves above $125, a reversal could unfold toward $130 and then $145. Yet, with sentiment still depressed, the downside risk remains substantial, with the possibility of SOL slipping into the low 100s if selling pressure intensifies.
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