Bitcoin has fallen about 30% from its October peak, and the overall altcoin market cap has evaporated around $1.5 trillion, prompting capital to flock to on-chain prediction markets. Polymarket and Kalshi have seen weekly trading volumes surge to roughly $60 billion, about 12 times higher than a year earlier. The shift reflects fatigue from a prolonged bear market and the lure of clear yes-or-no outcomes in real-world events.
Investors who once chased meme coins are now wagering on U.S. presidential races, sports results, and even tomorrow’s weather. On-chain processing underpins these bets, ensuring the entire flow is verifiable on the blockchain. Coinbase and Robinhood have moved to add prediction-market features or acquire relevant firms to broaden their offerings.
Owen Lau of Clear Street Analytics expects Coinbase’s prediction market revenue to reach about $700 million in 2026. Max Branzburg, Coinbase’s head of consumer products, says users want to trade everything in one place, viewing prediction markets as complementary rather than threatening.
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