Tether’s new stablecoin, USAT, could pose the first serious challenge to Circle’s USDC in the U.S. market, analysts say — if it can win over institutions. USAT is “a threat to USDC” and could gain an edge through institutional partners and global USDT connectivity, Crypto is Macro Now’s Noelle Acheson said. ClearStreet’s Owen Lau called USAT “a manageable risk” for Circle, and noted potential “cannibalization” risk between Tether’s two tokens.

Launched in partnership with federally chartered bank Anchorage Digital and Cantor Fitzgerald, USAT is Tether’s first attempt at a U.S.-regulated dollar token aimed at institutional users. USDC has a market capitalization of $72 billion, less than half of Tether’s USDT, but it grew twice as fast last year. “I believe USAT is a threat to USDC, even though the DNA of Tether and Circle is very different,” said Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter. “USAT is designed to be institutional-grade, looking to attract clients that would otherwise be happy using USDC,” she said.

Acheson pointed to several potential advantages: backing from Anchorage, partnerships with traditional finance firms like Cantor Fitzgerald, which also provides services to Tether’s USDT, and the potential ability to tap into Tether’s global network through conversion with USDT. “That could help institutions overcome their reluctance,” she said. Nicholas Roberts-Huntley, CEO of Blueprint Finance, argued that Tether’s U.S. entrance underscores that “demand for regulated dollar tokens among banks and fintechs is real” after the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act was into law. It also shows that the stablecoin market is “shifting from size and utility to differential regulatory positioning and institutional trust.”

“USDC has operated without a credible domestic competitor, as other entrants lacked the scale, distribution, or regulatory profile to challenge its position,” he said. The launch of USAT could change that. It is too early to gauge at this point, he said, but he thinks it poses a risk, though a manageable one for CRCLUSDC. There may even be a cannibalization risk, he added.

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