Cardano price enters February at an uncomfortable but interesting point. Momentum into February is fading, with the price down about 4% over the past week and February’s median at -9.50%; nevertheless, strong chart metrics give Cardano upside optionality. That explains why January often performs reasonably well while February tends to erase those gains.
On the two-day chart, the Cardano price has been compressing inside a falling wedge since late October. The projected upside comes from measuring the widest part of the wedge, from the earliest low to the thickest section of the structure, and projecting that distance upward. That measurement points to a potential move of roughly 90%.
Momentum supports the idea, conditionally. Between November 21 and January 25, the price made a lower low while the RSI formed a higher low, a bullish divergence on a two-day timeframe. This divergence suggests a potential rebound rather than a reversal unless the price breaks above the wedge’s upper trendline. Spot market behavior helps explain the stall, with January’s net buying supporting a 5% monthly gain and CMF showing higher readings as price drifted lower, though CMF remains below zero.
Derivatives positioning provides the missing catalyst. On Gate’s ADA perpetual market, short leverage far outweighs long, creating vulnerability to a quick upside breakout. A move above $0.374 would pressure shorts, while clearing $0.437 could unwind most exposure and activate the roughly 90% projection. A two-day close above $0.543 would confirm the breakout; a close below $0.329 would weaken the wedge and potentially align Cardano with February’s history.
Leave a Reply