Crypto spent much of 2025 in a bear market, with many altcoins down more than 60%, Hougan said. Bitcoin avoided steeper losses largely due to sustained buying from corporations and ETFs, according to Hougan. He described current conditions as a “rounding bottom” marked by weak ETF flows and muted retail participation.
Where bitcoin trades from here: Expect patience before the next leg higher. Hougan expects bitcoin to trade sideways between roughly $75,000 and $100,000 in the first half of the year. “There’s still a lot of Bitcoin for sale around $100,000,” he said, pointing to options-market positioning. A breakout is more likely later in the year as regulatory clarity improves and macro risks are digested.
Why precious metals matter: Gold’s rally reinforces bitcoin’s long-term case. Silver, he added, looks like a late-stage momentum trade, similar to a speculative altcoin rally. Over time, he expects those dynamics to funnel demand toward bitcoin as a superior form of self-custody and settlement. Central banks are circling, slowly: Interest is rising, but adoption is years away.
Hougan said Bitwise has already held meetings with central banks across multiple regions. Those institutions are still asking fundamental questions about bitcoin’s security and risks, not implementation details. He expects central banks to eventually own bitcoin — potentially more than gold — but said the timeline is likely 10 to 20 years. The $6.5 million bitcoin call: A long-term bet on monetary reality.
Hougan reiterated his view that bitcoin could reach roughly $6.5 million per coin over the next 20 years. The core assumption, he said, is not accelerating adoption but the continuation of global debt growth, money printing and currency debasement. He argued bitcoin is a superior version of gold and that central banks are only beginning to understand its role. “As long as the future isn’t dramatically different from the last 15 years,” Hougan said, “we get there. It’s just a matter of time.”
Zooming out: Volatility compression is key for institutions. Hougan said declining bitcoin volatility is critical for institutional adoption. He often tells allocators bitcoin is now less volatile than Nvidia, a stock many already own. Bitwise expects volatility to keep falling while bitcoin remains the fastest-growing major financial asset.
Final take: Short-term chop, long-term conviction. Hougan said regulatory clarity in Washington could accelerate the next bull phase, but isn’t required for crypto’s long-term trajectory. Even without clarity, he expects ETFs, stablecoins and tokenization to keep expanding. “The fundamentals are really good,” he said. “The stars are aligned for a good 2026.”
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