Rich by Coin

On January 30, Ripple’s CTO Emeritus, David Schwartz, directly addressed rampant community speculation about XRP’s price potential. He applied a fundamental financial logic to argue that the token’s current market value contradicts the wildly optimistic predictions shared online. The discussion began with a user pleading for Schwartz to tell supporters that XRP would not reach $50 or $100.

Schwartz declined to make an absolute prediction, recalling he once thought XRP hitting $0.25 was unlikely. However, he offered a clear framework for evaluating such claims. That if a meaningful share of rational investors truly believed XRP had a 10% chance of hitting $100 in the near future, selling at current levels would make little sense.

If many rational people believed that there was a 10% chance that XRP hit $100 within a few years, they definitely wouldn’t sell very much today at much less than $10, Schwartz wrote on X. According to him, those investors would buy aggressively, quickly exhausting supply at lower prices. But the fact that XRP continues to trade far below that level suggests that very few market participants hold that belief with enough confidence to commit capital.

Schwartz added that anyone claiming otherwise “is not telling the truth,” framing the issue as a gap between online claims and actual behavior. He encouraged readers to apply the same math themselves across different probabilities and timeframes. On January 30, Ripple’s CTO Emeritus, David Schwartz, addressed the rampant community speculation about XRP’s price potential.

He applied a fundamental financial logic to argue that the token’s current market value contradicts the wildly optimistic predictions circulating online. Schwartz declined to offer an absolute price target, recalling he once thought XRP hitting $0.25 was unlikely. However, he provided a framework for evaluating such claims.

He argued that if a meaningful share of rational investors truly believed XRP had a 10% chance of hitting $100 in the near future, selling at current levels would make little sense. If many rational people believed there was a 10% chance XRP could hit $100 within a few years, they wouldn’t sell very much today at much less than $10, Schwartz wrote on X. According to him, those investors would buy aggressively, quickly exhausting supply at lower prices.

But the fact that XRP continues to trade far below that level suggests that very few market participants hold that belief with enough confidence to commit capital. Schwartz added that anyone claiming otherwise “is not telling the truth,” framing the issue as a gap between online claims and actual behavior. He encouraged readers to apply the same math themselves across different probabilities and timeframes.