Darkfost, a pseudonymous on-chain analyst, pointed out on CryptoQuant via a Quicktake that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are accumulating more BTC. The key metric is the LTH supply change (Coinbase fix), which tracks net supply held by investors who haven’t moved coins in roughly 155 days. On a monthly average, about 186,000 BTC have been added to the long-term holders’ supply. As more coins age past 155 days, short-term holder supply appears to be contracting.
Darkfost notes that this kind of transition between long-term and short-term cohorts last occurred in April during a Bitcoin price retrace. A rising LTH supply is usually seen as growing conviction among long-term investors, reducing the amount of BTC available for sale. Historically, this pattern has been bullish for the BTC price, often appearing in early accumulation phases or late correction stages.
Yet the current backdrop shows weak demand cushioning further declines, suggesting a bearish phase could unfold with potential capitulation events. If that happens, the Bitcoin price would likely plummet as weaker investors sell in fear or as a result of liquidations. For a truly bullish case to take hold, demand would need to recover alongside continued long-term holder accumulation.
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