Bitcoin was around 78,900 dollars at 9:33 a.m. on February 1, after briefly testing 77,000 dollars—the lowest in about nine months since the tariff shocks peaked in April of last year. This month alone, Bitcoin has fallen more than 13% year-to-date, and not only Bitcoin, but most altcoins have logged double-digit losses. In the latest slide, about 800 million dollars in crypto-derivative positions were liquidated as leveraged bets were unwound, signaling a deleveraging phase.
On-chain data showed new Bitcoin addresses reached a near two-month high, signaling fresh buying interest, but it was not enough to absorb the liquidation flow. Strategy, a corporate treasury holder with over 700,000 BTC, saw the value of its holdings fall below the company’s average purchase price of 76,037 dollars, placing the entire position in the red for the first time. The firm’s stock has also plunged about 70% from its July high last year.
Marex Solutions’ global head of market strategy Ilan Solot said early Bitcoin believers were drawn to the digital-gold narrative, but institutional inflows have changed the dynamic, and such philosophical views no longer move the market as they once did. He added that the traditional view has been tested and that the expected outcomes have not matched initials. He also noted that individual investors are now more attracted to prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, leading to a perception that Bitcoin’s relative allure has diminished. He said that individuals are increasingly drawn to prediction markets and that larger institutional buyers’ focus on perpetual futures and digital-asset treasuries is dispersing capital away from a pure Bitcoin bet.
This week’s focus is on the January U.S. employment report due on the 6th, with nonfarm payrolls expected around 70,000 and the unemployment rate around 4.4%, potentially shaping expectations for rate cuts. Market expectations around the Fed chair nominee remain in focus; Morgan Stanley sees potential for additional rate cuts before the midterms, while Deutsche Bank cautions that persuading fellow policymakers will be challenging. A partial government shutdown has added to the uncertainty; if the budget is not passed, it could weigh on sentiment and market dynamics.
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