The XRP price was caught in the latest crypto market-wide selloff, falling to an intraday low of $1.57 within the past 24 hours. The sudden drop brings into focus XRP’s higher-timeframe structure, which is teasing a break below the 33-month exponential moving average. According to a technical assessment shared on X by crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, the recent drop below the 33-month exponential moving average does not automatically signal the end of XRP’s cycle, but XRP must close above an exact level to avoid a macro bearish confirmation.
There’s a risk that XRP can transition into a macro bear structure. A major point in Egrag’s analysis is historical performance that shows XRP’s strongest upside expansions did not require a clean bull-market environment. Therefore, there are two historical analogs of how XRP can play out from its current range around $1.60. The first is a repeat of the 2021-style move.
This move, measured from similar structural conditions, would imply an upside expansion of roughly 340% with a price target around the $7 region. The second one is a repeat of the 2017 cycle. Comparison to the 2017 cycle projects a much larger structural expansion of about 1,600%, which would align with the $27 zone highlighted on the chart above. In both cases, the rallies originated from oversold conditions and compression ranges, not from a strong bullish macro confirmation like many would expect.
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