Polymarket Prediction Odds Jump to 4% as Bitcoin Slumps

Polymarket traders push the implied odds of Jesus’ return by 2026 to 4% as Bitcoin slides, highlighting how thinly traded markets swing with crypto and politics.

Rich by Coin

2026-02-08

Traders on prediction platform Polymarket have pushed the implied odds of Jesus Christ returning by the end of 2026 to about 4%, more than doubling since early January. The contract, treated largely as a novelty, has outperformed bitcoin this year as the cryptocurrency has slid on concerns ranging from quantum-computing risks to speculation of hedge-fund troubles. The movement highlights how thinly traded prediction markets can swing like microcap tokens and how Polymarket increasingly mirrors shifting online attention across politics, pop culture and religion.

The market for the contract titled “Will Jesus return in 2026” traded around 4 cents on Friday, implying roughly a 4% chance, with the Yes side up more than 120% in just over a month after rising from about 1.8% on Jan. 3. A Yes pays out $1 if the event occurs and $0 otherwise, while a No at about 96 cents stands to earn roughly 4 cents if the contract resolves “No.” The contract resolves to “Yes” if the Second Coming occurs by Dec. 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET, and to “No” otherwise, with Polymarket stating the resolution will be based on a consensus of credible sources.

Bitcoin, in contrast, has been moving in the opposite direction. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 18% this year for reasons ranging from concerns that quantum computing could break its encryption to speculation about a hedge fund blow-up and broader risk-off pressure across global markets. Such price action has left even meme-like prediction contracts looking resilient by comparison.

Polymarket markets work like binary options, where a “Yes” share pays out $1 if the event occurs and a “No” share pays out $1 if it does not; the trading price reflects the crowd’s implied probability. A trader who buys “Yes” at 4 cents is effectively paying that amount for a shot at $1, while someone buying “No” at 96 cents stands to earn 4 cents if the contract resolves “No.” If “No” trades in the mid-to-high 90s for long stretches, it creates the appearance of a slow, steady gain for anyone willing to park money there, even though the trade is ultimately binary and can still swing sharply.