Bitcoin-Gold ratio has flashed a historic warning as altcoins sink to record lows against gold. With spot gold hovering near $5,000 per ounce, gold-backed tokens such as PAXG and XAUT track bullion closely while remaining a small slice of the broader crypto market. The pattern underscores how far non-major crypto has lagged the metal, a divergence highlighted by analysts as systemic stress grows. Analysts have flagged a dramatic RSI reading, with weekly RSI near 25 for altcoins versus gold — a level not seen since the COVID crash.
Michaël van de Poppe warned that “The current valuation of #Altcoins against Gold is the lowest it has ever been… The RSI has turned to 25 on the weekly timeframe. This has never happened,” underscoring the extreme spread, with the only prior analogue cited as “the COVID crash (a Black Swan).” Tokenized gold and silver markets have expanded even as overall crypto trading remains volatile. PAX Gold (PAXG) trades near $5,035.43, down 0.09% on the day, with about $425.2M in daily volume and an intraday range of $4,985.75–$5,088.73, while Ceter Gold (XAUT) hovers around $5,013.23 after a 7.4% gain over the past week. Other leaders—Ondo (ONDO), PAXG, Maker (MKR), and Chainlink (LINK)—have moved in ways that analysts say buck the broader bear trend.
Real-world asset tokens backed by gold sit at the center of this stress test. The sector shows growth but remains modest next to spot gold’s multi‑trillion-dollar market, with tokenized commodities valued around $0.8–$1B in recent reports. Yet derivatives flow reveals ongoing volatility, including weeks when RWA perpetuals volume spiked above $15.5B as gold futures fell and silver dropped sharply, forcing liquidations across levered positions. Whether this regime signals an arbitrage opportunity or a value trap will depend on the next macro liquidity move, not narratives alone.
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