JPMorgan has slashed Coinbase’s price target to $290 from $399 but kept an Overweight rating, citing softer virtual-asset trading volumes and price pressure as factors limiting upside. The firm’s analyst, Ken Worthington, estimated Coinbase’s fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA at $734 million, with total trading revenue of $1.06 billion and subscription and services revenue of $670 million. The downgrade comes as Coinbase’s stock has fallen more than 50% since Bitcoin’s peak and is down about 27% in 2026 year-to-date.
USDC-related revenue is expected to be about $312 million, reflecting lower circulating supply. Fourth-quarter trading revenue, including Deribit, is projected at roughly $1.06 billion, with Deribit’s contribution around $117 million based on roughly $5.86 trillion in volume. Deribit, acquired last August, has reportedly cushioned some volatility.
Barclays trimmed Coinbase’s adjusted EBITDA outlook by about 10% versus consensus due to weaker retail trading and lower blockchain rewards revenue. Compass Point cautioned that an earnings miss could occur in the subscriptions segment. Investors note Coinbase’s stock decline of more than 50% since Bitcoin’s October highs and a roughly 27% drop in 2026 to date. Market watchers say early-2026 trading momentum, USDC revenue sustainability, and whether the Deribit acquisition can dampen earnings volatility will be key themes.
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