Following a local bottom on February 5, MicroStrategy shares rose about 33% in just a few days. The move came amid a Bitcoin rebound and renewed investor interest in MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin-linked business model, led by Michael Saylor. The rebound in MicroStrategy’s stock appears sturdy at first glance.
But context matters. The question is whether this rally reflects durable confidence in MicroStrategy’s long-term Bitcoin thesis or is a temporary surge driven by crypto sentiment. Earnings results provided a second supporting factor. In the Q4 2025 results, MicroStrategy posted revenue of $123 million, up 1.9% year over year.
Subscription revenue rose more than 62%, underscoring the strength of its cloud business. Gross margin hovered near 66%, showing stable cash flow from its core software segment. The sizable net loss was largely due to non-cash impairment related to Bitcoin holdings acquired under Michael Saylor’s long-term strategy. It did not reflect operational weaknesses.
Management reaffirmed continued Bitcoin accumulation and a long-term stance. Bitcoin price stability and revenue that exceeded expectations combined to form the bedrock of the rally. The CMF combines price and volume to gauge whether large investors are buying or selling. When CMF rises, it suggests that big players are accumulating assets.
Conversely, a decline indicates higher selling pressure. From late November through early February, MicroStrategy’s stock declined. But CMF rose gradually during that period.
This signaled a bullish divergence, suggesting large investors quietly increased positions even as retail sentiment cooled. Since February 5, CMF has moved above zero for the first time since December. That indicates fresh money inflows. It suggests that large capital is approaching MicroStrategy as a leveraged vehicle for the Bitcoin rebound.
But there are caution signals on momentum. The Bull-Bear Power indicator shows which side—buying or selling—has the near-term edge. Even with a 33% rise, the indicator remains negative. Selling pressure still prevails.
This suggests accumulation is underway, but leadership has not officially shifted to the buyers. In such conditions, the rebound could rapidly turn into a sharp drop. MicroStrategy stock remains in a downtrend. Even with a 33% rise, the stock remains below key trendlines.
On the upside, the $138 region is the first major resistance. A daily close above this level would be a bullish signal. The next upside target is the $150 region. If it stays above $150, it would signify a genuine trend reversal for the stock. But this would be a secondary scenario, not the base case.
Downside risk is clearly present. The $104–$107 zone marks the February low. That zone has been tested once. A drop below $104 would invalidate the rebound. If such a decline occurs, the stock could slide to around $82. Further weakness could expose the area around $56, near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
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