Solana is showing signs of stress after months of sustained losses, growing outflows, and weakening price structure. Recent on-chain and market data suggest traders may be approaching a decisive moment. While price action remains fragile, historical patterns are drawing attention as selling pressure intensifies and long-term holders reposition. According to Ali Martinez, more than 1.07 million SOL left centralized exchanges over the last 72 hours.
Such withdrawals often reflect fear-driven self-custody rather than fresh accumulation. Besides that, Santiment data shows Solana-focused ETFs recorded $11.9 million in net outflows. This marked the second-largest capital exit on record. Solana has lost roughly 62% of its market value over four months.
Consequently, market behavior now resembles late-stage drawdowns seen in previous cycles. Moreover, heavy ETF outflows often appear near exhaustion phases, when sellers dominate flows regardless of price. At the time of writing, Solana trades near $87 with muted daily price movement. However, weekly losses remain steep.
Hence, short-term stability does not yet signal recovery. Analysis from CryptoJobs3 points to a confirmed loss of monthly support between $98 and $100. This region previously acted as a strong demand zone. However, repeated closes below it indicate fading bullish control.
Additionally, price rebounds have grown weaker and continue to stall near former resistance. This behavior reflects a broader downtrend rather than temporary volatility. The next major support rests near $78, which aligns with a long-term weekly demand area. If price breaks below $78, analysts expect selling pressure to accelerate.
Consequently, downside targets extend toward $70, then $60. Deeper historical demand exists near the $48 to $45 range, where buyers previously stepped in. According to Galaxy, Solana shows a structure similar to late 2022. During that period, SOL based near $8 after an extended decline.
Today, SOL trades between $85 and $90, resting on a long-term descending trendline. Weekly RSI now sits near 37, reflecting deep oversold conditions. A similar RSI compression preceded the 2022 reversal.
Key supports remain at $80 and $65. A failure there risks a deeper sweep toward $55. However, upside scenarios still exist. A reclaim of $120 would signal trendline recovery.
That move could open paths toward $160 and eventually $220 to $260. Historically, such compression phases often precede sharp expansions.
Solana is under pressure after months of losses, growing outflows, and a weakening price structure. On-chain and market data point to traders approaching a decisive moment, with selling pressure intensifying as long-term holders reposition. As of now, SOL trades near $87 with muted daily movement, while weekly losses remain steep, suggesting that short-term stability does not yet indicate a recovery.
Notably, Ali Martinez reports more than 1.07 million SOL left centralized exchanges over the last 72 hours, a move that often reflects fear-driven self-custody rather than fresh accumulation. In addition, Santiment data shows Solana-focused ETFs recorded $11.9 million in net outflows, marking the second-largest capital exit on record.
Analysts describe a broader downtrend shaping Solana’s near-term path. Monthly support between $98 and $100 has been lost, a region that previously served as a strong demand zone. Repeated closes below this area indicate fading bullish control, and rebounds have grown weaker as price stalls near former resistance.
The next major support sits near $78, aligning with a long-term weekly demand area; a break below $78 could accelerate selling pressure, with downside targets extending toward $70, then $60. Deeper historical demand exists near the $48 to $45 range, where buyers previously stepped in. Galaxy notes a structure similar to late 2022, when SOL traded near $8 after an extended decline; today, SOL trades between $85 and $90 atop a long-term descending trendline.
Weekly RSI sits near 37, reflecting deep oversold conditions, with a similar RSI compression preceding the 2022 reversal. Key supports remain at $80 and $65, and a failure there risks a deeper sweep toward $55. However, upside scenarios persist; a reclaim of $120 would signal trendline recovery and could open paths toward $160 and eventually $220 to $260. Historically, such compression phases often precede sharp expansions.
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