XRP’s price rebounded more than 30% after tracing a low near $1.12 in early February, briefly approaching the $1.50 zone. While momentum indicators improved and a falling-wedge pattern with a notable breakout potential emerged, on-chain data suggest the rebound may lack durable support. The rally coincides with heavy loss exits from short- and medium-term holders, raising questions about whether buyers are genuinely absorbing supply or if exit liquidity is driving the move.
SOPR remains below 1, indicating sellers are accepting losses rather than waiting for a recovery, a sign that the bounce could be a distribution rather than a sustained reversal. The on-chain analysis also highlights a strong near-term sell wall between roughly $1.42 and $1.44, with more than 660 million XRP accumulated in that range, and a subsequent resistance around the $1.54 EMA level. If the price fails to clear these zones, downside risk could intensify toward $1.23 or even $1.12.
Holder cohorts show a broad distribution of selling pressure. The 24-hour holder group collapsed from about 1% of circulating supply to roughly 0.09% in days, a move exceeding 90% decline. The 1-month to 3-month cohort also reduced exposure after having accumulated near $2.07 earlier in January, decreasing their share from about 14.5% to around 9.5%. Mid-term holders remain underwater, choosing rallies to minimize losses rather than awaiting a full recovery.
Cost-basis maps underscore why the $1.44–$1.54 zone acts as a wall; breaches of these levels tend to trigger intensified selling. Only a sustained break above $1.54, supported by improving profitability and diminished selling, would alter the XRP price structure. Taken together, these signals suggest the current rally may be more about exit liquidity than broad-based accumulation, complicating the path to a sustainable recovery.
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