XRP Price Analysis: 200W EMA at Critical Level Could Spark Major Bullish Shift

XRP trades around $1.39 with the 200-week EMA near $1.41 as a key inflection. A hold could fuel a rally toward new highs, while a break below may target $0.70.

Rich by Coin

2026-02-11

After recovering from last week’s lows, XRP has been moving sideways, hovering between $1.40 and $1.45 over the past four days. As the price attempts to hold its local range lows, a market observer affirms that the cryptocurrency could be preparing for a potential recovery if its critical level holds. ChartNerd highlighted XRP’s performance over the past six months, suggesting that the altcoin could be positioned for a major bullish structure shift, noting six months of downside with virtually no relief and key signals such as the MACD and RSI reaching historical oversold levels. He pointed to simultaneous backtests of the 50-Month EMA, a prior eight-year resistance line, and the Fibonacci demand zone.

This marks the first 50EMA backtest since November 2024, with a wick touching the 0.618-0.5 Fibonacci demand zone—a popular reversal pocket. In a video analysis, ChartNerd emphasized that XRP sits at a critical inflection point, pointing to its 200-week EMA, a level that had not been tested since 2024 until now, and where the price is currently sitting. The analyst added that holding above this moving average could set the pace for new all-time highs and continue the uptrend.

For his bullish case, he pointed out XRP’s 2023-2024 performance, when it consolidated above the indicator and held it as support for over a year, leading to the breakout in November 2024. The important part is to hold the 200W EMA, defend it, and create a higher low base, which could push XRP to new all-time highs if it respects this long-term structure moving average.

The analyst also shared a bearish outlook for XRP, noting that losing the 200W EMA in the weekly timeframe and confirming it as resistance could signal a major drop ahead. Per ChartNerd’s analysis, if the altcoin starts closing below the 200W EMA, located around the $1.41 area, it risks descending toward the $0.70 mark. This is where the previous local highs that have not been retested since the late 2024 breakout lie. He explained that in 2022, after reaching a local high of around $1.97, XRP came back down for a retest on its 200-week EMA, then placed a lower high, lost the 200-week, and corrected even further to bear market lows.

As of this writing, XRP trades at $1.39, a 3% decline on the daily timeframe. If XRP can defend the 200W EMA near $1.41, the path could open to fresh upside and new targets, echoing a pattern seen in previous cycles when XRP held the long-term moving average.