U.S. institutional investors are maintaining their leveraged positions in bitcoin while offshore traders are reducing exposure, NYDIG found. The difference in futures basis between CME and Deribit reflects varying risk appetite across regions. Bitcoin’s price movement aligns with quantum computing stocks, suggesting a broader market trend rather than a specific quantum risk factor. The gap is clearest in futures markets.
CME, the go-to platform for hedge funds and institutional desks in the U.S., shows traders are still paying a premium to stay long on bitcoin, according to NYDIG’s head of research, Greg Cipolaro. The more pronounced drop in offshore basis suggests reduced appetite for leveraged long exposure, Cipolaro wrote. The widening spread between CME and Deribit basis functions as a real-time gauge of geographical risk appetite. Bitcoin earlier this month fell to $60,000 before rebounding.
Some pinned the selloff on rising concerns that quantum computing will undermine the system’s cryptographic security. NYDIG found that the numbers don’t back up that explanation. For one, bitcoin’s performance has closely tracked that of publicly traded quantum-computing companies like IONQ Inc. (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS). If quantum risk were truly weighing on crypto, those stocks would be rising while bitcoin falls.
Instead, they dropped together, pointing to a broader decline in appetite for long-term, future-driven assets. On top of that, search data on Google Trends shows interest for “quantum computing bitcoin” rises when the price of BTC rises.
U.S. institutional investors continue to hold leveraged bitcoin positions while offshore traders trim exposure, according to NYDIG. The spread between CME and Deribit futures basis serves as a real-time gauge of regional risk appetite, with the U.S. market showing a premium to stay long. Bitcoin’s price action has also mirrored movements in quantum computing stocks, suggesting broader market dynamics rather than a quantum-specific risk factor. Bitcoin’s price this month hovered near the $60,000 level before rebounding.
CME remains the go-to venue for hedge funds and institutional desks in the United States, indicating continued appetite to hold long exposure, whereas offshore activity has dried up more quickly. This geographic split underscores how regional risk appetite shapes leverage and long bets in the bitcoin market. Offshore demand has dropped more sharply, signaling a softer appetite for leveraged long exposure outside the U.S. NYDIG notes that the data do not support a quantum-risk explanation.
If quantum risk were truly weighing on crypto, investors would expect quantum stocks like IONQ Inc. (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) to rise as bitcoin falls; instead, those stocks declined alongside bitcoin, pointing to a broader decline in appetite for long-duration, future-driven assets. Additionally, Google Trends data show interest in “quantum computing bitcoin” tends to rise when the price of BTC increases, reinforcing a market-driven narrative rather than a quantum threat.
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