Bitcoin market has clearly entered a bear market and may require months of adjustment. Tens of billions of dollars had flowed in, but total market capitalization was flat or falling, signaling strong selling pressure. He stressed that past severe correction phases required at least three months of sideways movement and that short-term rebounds do not mean the start of a new bull market.
Ki outlined two recovery scenarios for Bitcoin. The first is a rebound after the price falls to around $55,000, a level he says reflects the average purchase price of Bitcoin holders based on on-chain data. The second is a prolonged sideways move between $60,000 and $70,000, which would require sufficient adjustment and market stabilization. But for now, conditions for a sustained rise are not in place, with ETF inflows stalled and over-the-counter demand also falling.
Recent selling pressure appears to have come from institutional investors liquidating positions. As Bitcoin volatility has declined, institutions that used beta-delta neutral strategies moved to other assets such as the Nasdaq and gold. CME data show institutions sharply reduced short positions, which does not signal strength but rather capital outflows. A pattern has also been observed in which large amounts of Bitcoin are sold at market prices in a short period, which is highly likely to be forced liquidations or strategic selling to adjust derivatives positions.
Trading volume held up throughout 2024, but actual new capital inflows were concentrated only in some tokens with the potential for ETF listings. Total altcoin market capitalisation failed to surpass its past peak, showing that the market is not expanding and only existing funds are circulating. Ki said the era when the altcoin market rose on a single narrative is over and that this is a time when structural innovation such as an AI agent economy is needed. In the near term, altcoins have limited upside potential, and investor sentiment may take a long time to recover.
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