Bitcoin swung between about $65,900 and $67,000 on Thursday as traders reacted to former President Donald J. Trump’s claim that tariffs have slashed the U.S. trade deficit by 78 percent. Investors are focused less on the accuracy of Trump’s trade figures and more on how renewed tariff talk could mean higher-for-longer interest rates, a stronger dollar and pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin trading remained volatile on Thursday, rising to around $67,000 after briefly dipping near $65,900, as traders weighed a new message from U.S. President Donald Trump claiming the nation’s trade deficit has been cut by 78% thanks to tariffs and could turn positive later this year. “The United States trade deficit has been reduced by 78% because of the tariffs being charged to other companies and countries,” Trump said in a Truth Social post late Wednesday.
“It will go into positive territory during this year, for the first time in many decades.” Tariffs can act like a tax on imports, which can lift prices in the real economy and complicate the path for interest rates. When markets start pricing “rates higher for longer,” the dollar tends to firm and risk assets tend to lose oxygen. Bitcoin has spent the past two weeks trading like a macro proxy again, reacting to shifts in liquidity and rate expectations rather than any crypto specific catalyst.
There is also a real data backdrop that makes trade a live topic. In early January, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply to about $29.4 billion, the lowest since 2009, with analysts pointing to a drop in imports, a jump in exports and the knock on effects of tariff threats. If the tariffs story hardens into a stronger dollar and tighter financial conditions, rallies can struggle to stick. If it fades into political noise, crypto goes back to watching flows, leverage and whether buyers can reclaim lost levels.
Geopolitical tensions lift the U.S. dollar and crude prices, adding pressure to an already fragile crypto market. Bitcoin is on track to post its fifth consecutive weekly decline, a streak not seen since March to May 2022. Bitcoin has traded in a tight range around the $66,000 level as traders weigh tariff-driven signals from U.S. politics. Trump’s claim that tariffs have cut the trade deficit by 78% has intensified bets that policy will keep interest rates higher for longer, strengthening the dollar and pressuring risk assets including bitcoin. The currency’s macro linkage means bitcoin can drift as rate expectations shift.
Over the past two weeks, bitcoin has moved like a macro proxy, reacting to liquidity shifts and rate expectations rather than a crypto-specific catalyst. The latest data backdrop shows the U.S. trade deficit narrowing to about $29.4 billion in early January, the lowest since 2009, with analysts pointing to weaker imports, stronger exports, and tariff-driven dynamics. If tariffs push the dollar higher and tighten financial conditions, rallies in crypto can struggle to hold; if the narrative fades, flows, leverage and price levels again become the focus.
Geopolitical tensions tend to lift the dollar and crude prices, adding pressure to an already fragile market. Bitcoin is on track for its fifth consecutive weekly decline, a streak not seen since March to May 2022, underscoring how macro factors continue to drive crypto markets.
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