Bitcoin is set to rally as markets calm down, according to Thomas Perfumo, global economist at Kraken. Options traders are now betting that price swings will fade as Bitcoin’s price stabilises between $65,000 and $70,000, Perfumo told. “Historically, we’ve seen a similar dynamic during Bitcoin’s August 2024 and March-April 2025 corrections,” he said. “In both cases the dislocation preceded recovery rallies as markets digested heavy selling and volatility normalised.”
Those predictions may serve as a balm to traders burnt by Bitcoin’s price crashing 47% below its October peak of $126,000. Perfumo also cited onchain data to support his argument for a market recovery. A measure called “coin days destroyed,” which tracks the movement of older, long-held Bitcoin, has dropped back to lower levels after spikes in 2024 and 2025, Perfumo said.
Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, also says the market may have bottomed out. “Bitcoin’s price action and volatility suggest an exhaustion event,” Selby told. “The magnitude of the volatility spike, combined with Bitcoin’s roughly 47% drawdown, suggests market participants are pricing in catastrophic outcomes, conditions that historically signal a panic-driven flush-out, not the beginning of a prolonged decline.”
Perfumo and Selby aren’t the only ones arguing that Bitcoin’s price is set for a rebound. In a string of highly publicised blog posts, Hayes has argued that the Federal Reserve is going to pump the price of Bitcoin by adding liquidity into the market. The US central bank printing more money is usually positive for Bitcoin’s price movement. Similarly, Bessent said on February 12 that the passage of crypto-friendly legislation like the Clarity Act will shore up investors’ confidence and thus boost Bitcoin prices.
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